![]() ![]() And my point was that by the end of the century - in our intermediate scenario - the frequency of warmer than normal seasons would increase to about 60 to 70%. So I had two sides of the die read for hot, two sides, blue for cold and two sides of white for average. And unusually cold conditions are those 10 out of the 30 years that were the coldest. And for that period, the National Weather Service had defined warm seasons, unusually warm seasons as those which occurred 30 or 33% of the time. So what I did was make one die, which was supposed to represent normal conditions, which was the 1951-to-1980 climatology. And if you average over a season, then it's a little easier to see anomalous temperature change. So all you can do is look for a change in the frequency of warmer than normal times. But in fact, the problem is that global warming is relatively small compared to weather fluctuations. You know, when you talk about global warming, then when you have a cool day or a cool month or a cool year, people think, oh, that must be a lot of baloney. Jim Hansen - Yeah, well, it was right after the 1988 hearing because of the misinterpretation that some people made. Was it the first time in 1988 for that hearing or before? ![]() This was a you came up with this as kind of a speaking point. Jim Hansen on Loaded Dice and Climate Change - June 2008 interviewĪndy Revkin - So explain the dice. Read Jim Hansen’s full newsletter here and do subscribe! Rising Odds of Extreme Heat Increase of such climate extremes has the greatest practical importance. Chance of occurrence now is more than 20%, thus covering more than one side of the dice (one side is 16.7%). These are extremely hot summers that seldom occurred in the base period (less than 1% of the time). The more important point is the dark red area on the bell curve, the portion that exceeds three standard deviations. So, the answer to Andy’s question is: yes, one more side is red. Twenty years later, the red area is 87.6%, five sides of the dice. The variability of summer mean temperature in the base period (1951- 1980, prior to the period of rapid global warming), is described by the bell curve on the left.īy definition, the one-third of summers closest to average temperature are the white, warmer summers are red and colder are blue, thus each color covering 2 of the 6 sides of the dice.īy the last decade of the 20th century, red conditions were occurring 63% of the time on Northern Hemisphere land, which is almost the 67% needed to cover 4 sides. 1)….Ī 1-page description of the bell curves and climate dice is available as the author summary of our PNAS paper on the topic. The answer is “yes,” the dice are more loaded as we will explain via the shifting bell curve (Fig. Climate dice were defined in 1988, after we realized that the next cool summer may cause the public to discount human-caused climate change. Note what he says about the odds of extremely hot summers:Īndy Revkin recently asked whether the “climate dice” have become more “loaded” in the last 15 years. Here’s an excerpt, followed by other resources for you to explore. ![]()
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